On-going Projects

Geographical Diversification and Firm Resilience to Disasters (2025).

This study explores the interplay between firms’ geographical diversification operations and vulnerability systemic risks associated with natural disasters. On one hand, the collocation of subsidiaries can enhance an organization’s logistical capabilities to respond to catastrophic events through improved information exchange, shared expertise, and resource allocation. Conversely, a lack of geographical diversification can heighten a firm’s overall susceptibility to specific systemic risks. Essentially, a higher concentration of a corporation’s economic activities in fewer locations may diminish its ability to spread and mitigate the impact of such risks. The ambiguity surrounding whether geographical concentration or diversification better equips organizations to manage disaster risks presents a complex dilemma. This study seeks to unravel this complexity, offering insights critical to the strategic decisions surrounding market entry and expansion. It underscores the significance of systemic risk considerations in shaping organizational performance and sustainability in an era marked by escalating disaster risks.

Risk Preferences and Entrepreneurship: Evidence from a Nationally Representative Survey (2025).

This project revisits the relation between risk tolerance and business creation. While it is widely accepted that attitudes toward risk influence occupational choices, the argument that individuals who choose entrepreneurship over employment exhibit high risk tolerance remains a topic of considerable debate. Previous research has faced the empirical challenge of systematically measuring risk preferences over time among a pool of potential entrepreneurs. My methodological approach leverages data from a longitudinal survey, representative of the Mexican population, that captures a broad range of socioeconomic and demographic aspects at the individual, household, and community levels. In this face-to-face survey, respondents elicit attitudes toward risk when choosing gambles with varying payoffs.

For identification of the studied effect, I exploit variation in exposure to these phenomena across Mexico. Recent studies consistently document fluctuations in risk preferences following natural disasters. Preliminary findings indicate that individuals displaying low risk aversion are significantly more likely to establish new businesses. Additionally, the size of the venture, proxy by number of non-family employees, increases with the risk tolerance of the entrepreneur.

Corporate Risk-Taking and Exposure to Climate Change: A Geospatial Analysis of Multinational Enterprises (2025).

I argue that a significant fraction of the variation in firm-level susceptibility to climate change impacts may be attributed to inherent corporate risk-taking behaviors. Firms with comparatively aggressive management styles may be likely to operate in regions prone to climate change effects. Furthermore, a causal loop may exist wherein exposure to climate-induced shocks potentially heightens corporate risk-taking. To investigate this link, I develop a metric for assessing corporate exposure to climate change and apply it to analyze the international operations of the world’s 2000 largest corporations. This study contributes to understanding the interplay between firm strategy and environmental factors, offering insights into how operational decisions influence and are influenced by climate change risks. It also provides a unique framework for evaluating corporate vulnerability to environmental changes, which is critical for strategic planning in an era of increasing climate uncertainty.

The Impact of Disasters on Firm Performance Across Countries and Time (2024).

How significantly do large disasters impact firm performance over time and across different countries? This question has grown more pressing as value chains spread geographically and capital pools in areas prone to disasters. To explore this, I’ve developed a novel methodological approach that merges spatial analysis of corporate risk with machine learning techniques. A critical part of my project involves mapping out (latitude and longitude) each subsidiary of the world’s largest multinational enterprises, adjusted for ownership proportion, along with every major manmade and natural disaster since 1990. I calculate the distance between subsidiaries and disasters, considering the unique characteristics of each disaster type (e.g., earthquakes, hurricanes) and category (i.e., biological, climatological, geophysical, hydrological, meteorological, sociopolitical, and technological). Then, I use neural networks and cluster analysis to weigh different disaster types and severities, aiming to predict the varied impact radii of shocks on nearby corporate subsidiaries.

Eventually, I create type-specific metrics of disaster exposure for each subsidiary and compile comprehensive risk profiles for each multinational enterprise. With these insights, I evaluate changes in the performance and sustainability of firm operations over time and across countries. I believe that my project will not only enhance our understanding of the direct effects of disasters on global business performance but also provide researchers and strategists with a framework to create more resilient firms and societies.